Excess capacity or a new freight war between liner ships

Recently, Zhang Yanyi, chairman of Evergreen, warned that with the delivery of a large number of newly-built super-large container ships this year, liner operators may see a repeat of the tariff war before the epidemic if demand fails to keep up with the growth of capacity. Zhang Yanyi made a speech at the Lunar New Year celebration of China Taiwan Province Shipowners Association.

Evergreen itself has 49 ships with 463,442teu under construction, but the market leader MSC has the largest order, with 133 ships with more than 1.8 million TEU under construction, followed by COSCO(884,272teu) and CMA CGM(816,476teu). Zhang Yanyi: "After two years of amazing profits, the liner industry now faces three challenges. First, international trade and the global economic slowdown; Second, the container freight rate has dropped; Third, a large number of new ships are being built. "

Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) has shrunk by more than 2% compared with the highest point in early 2022, with the west coast of Asia and the United States and the Asia-Europe route falling the most. "If the economy can't keep up with the growth of shipping supply, liner operators may start a price war, which is the most unfortunate situation in our industry, unless we can substantially adjust the capacity. If the freight war continues, the profits of trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe and other important routes may not escape the risk of breaking the break-even point, and even small boat companies may suffer losses. If the Russian-Ukrainian war ends, it is expected to ease the inflation and energy crisis and stimulate the market to return to normal consumption, which is the most important thing for the shipping industry. " Zheng Zhenmao, chairman of Yangming Shipping, who attended the event, said that there were no obvious signs of economic recovery. The throughput of container terminals is not large, and the situation remains to be seen.